Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Can the Filter Be Uncreative?

The test:
The following triplet, 2-4-6, follows a rule.
Give a triplet exhibiting the same rule.

The usual answer:
8-10-12, on the assumption the rule is ascending even numbers.

BUT;
There are many answers here. In this particular example, the rule was ascending numbers so the triplet 7-9-11 or, better, 7-8-10, is a more accurate description of the triplet rule.

This is the "confirmation bias" of British psychologist Peter Wason. Rather than science working by falsifying hypotheses as Karl Popper said, we collect evidence in support of an argument.

The history of evaluation also carries a tremendous directional pressure. For example, ulcer disease investigation for years had certain preconceived notions reinforced by the greatest minds in medicine. The idea of infection was never purposely excluded, it was just crowded out by consensus.

Now imagine an organization trying to evaluate something on which its very existence depends. Or a government program. Or a pharmaceutical firm evaluating a drug of its own creation.

Worse, imagine a well meaning scientist with a political bent evaluating data.

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